A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
